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At multiple points throughout the regular season, Syracuse appeared unlikely to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. 

But Syracuse finished the regular season with wins against North Carolina and Clemson at home, two tournament teams. Once the Orange throttled NC State in the second round of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament, the selection committee had seen enough to put the Orange in the field of 68 and match them up with San Diego State.

Here are the numbers to know before No. 11 seed Syracuse (16-9, 9-7 ACC) plays No. 6 seed San Diego State (23-4, 14-3 Mountain West) on Friday night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

What the last five games told us about Syracuse

Syracuse wouldn’t be in the field without the three consecutive Quadrant-II wins it pulled off against UNC, Clemson and NC State. The Orange weren’t even on the bubble in the BracketMatrix or ESPN’s Joe Lunardi bracketology prior to that run. However, improved performances in their last four games have been significant.

The recent improvements for the Orange have not come from defense — Syracuse ranked 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency in its last five games. Almost all of the improvements have been on offense, where Syracuse is 33.9% from 3 and is the eighth-most efficient offense in the country in that small sample size. For reference, No. 1 Gonzaga’s offense ranked seventh in the same time frame, just 0.2 points per 100 possessions better than the Orange.

When you cut the 25-game total season into cross sections, the improved play only shows itself in the last five games, which includes losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia along with the previously mentioned victories.

Syracuse’s offensive improvement has been driven by junior guard Buddy Boeheim, who has raised his shooting percentage significantly. 

One area of significant recent defensive improvement for the Orange has been in guarding the perimeter. That will be a key against San Diego State, who has the 28th-best 3-point percentage in the nation. SU ranked 83rd in perimeter defense in the last five games and has created more second chance opportunities through offensive rebounding. 

For comparison, San Diego State ranked 28th-best in that same time frame, but the Aztecs’ offense has struggled with jump shooting and overall offensive efficiency. SDSU struggled from 3 in two of its three Mountain West tournament games, shooting 18-of-56 (32.1%).

How Syracuse has fared against quality opponents

San Diego State is ranked 10th in Bart Torvik’s adjusted efficiency metric and 20th in KenPom. Torvik says that the Aztecs are the most efficient team the Orange have played all season, while KenPom says that SDSU is second behind Virginia.

When the Orange have played quality opponents this season, they have struggled. According to Torvik’s quality games efficiency — which only counts games against top 50 opponents — the Orange are 80th. Syracuse has played nine games against top 50 opponents, venue adjusted, and has a 2-7 record in those games. 

Its defense has particularly struggled in these matchups, ranking 165th in adjusted efficiency in these games. When the Orange lost to good teams, it was because of their ineffective defensive rebounding and the 3-point shooting differential. Teams have outrebounded them and outshot them from beyond the 3-point arc.

The Aztecs have played four teams inside the venue-adjusted top 50 and struggled on offense, making 27.5% of their 3s in those games. Overall, SDSU is slightly ahead of the Orange at 83rd in overall efficiency, but on offense, SDSU is 149th.

There’s a danger in overreacting to small sample sizes, but both the SDSU offense and Syracuse defense have really struggled against the top tier teams on their respective schedules. 

The enigmatic Alan Griffin

Alan Griffin has been the Orange’s most up-and-down player from game to game this season. Griffin has had moments of brilliance where he’s carried the Syracuse offense and played great defense. When Syracuse played Georgia Tech, Griffin’s 20 first-half points kept the Orange in the game. Against Clemson at home on March 3, Griffin’s six 3s and 22 points stretched out their lead for a critical win to make the NCAA Tournament. Griffin also registered 10 rebounds, seven blocks and two steals in SU’s win against Virginia Tech on Jan. 23 and saved the game against Buffalo with a last-second block.

For all of the good Griffin has brought for Syracuse, there’s also been the bad. Griffin’s had four games with a KenPom offensive rating below 70 (100 is average). He played a season-low 12 minutes in the Orange’s ACC Tournament loss to Virginia on Thursday, which Jim Boeheim called his worst performance of the season. He has the ability to take over games as he’s done multiple times this season, but the emergence of Robert Braswell off the bench also shortens the length of time Boeheim will keep him in the game if he’s struggling.

As Boeheim showed against Virginia, he’ll just sub in Braswell. This chart of his KenPom offensive rating by game shows just how enigmatic Griffin has been this year from game to game.

Anthony Dabbundo | Senior Staff Writer

Buddy Boeheim, then and now

Buddy started his junior year with multiple interruptions to the practice schedule as Syracuse missed two weeks prior to its season-opener, and Buddy missed three games due to contract tracing. The junior guard then contracted COVID-19 during the Orange’s midseason pause in late December. All of this could have contributed to his significant shooting percentage dropoff from last season, or it could just be shooting variance. 

Buddy made 35.3% of his 3-point attempts as a freshman and 37% as a sophomore. Yet in his first 11 games of the season, Buddy made 22-of-80 (27.5%) from deep. His shooting woes culminated in a 1-of-7 shooting performance at Virginia on Jan. 25. At that point, he was running nearly 10% behind the pace he had set the season prior. He had three separate games — Northeastern, Buffalo and Pittsburgh — where he failed to make a 3-pointer.

Since that Virginia game, Buddy has been one of the hottest shooters in the country. Buddy has made 41-of-89 (46%) from deep to raise his overall percentage to 37.3%, higher than last year. He’s made at least four 3s in six of the Orange’s last 11 games. 

Early in the season, it appeared that Syracuse was going to play faster than it had in years. The Orange were top 100 in pace and offensive possession length metrics. They appeared to be better at forcing turnovers and getting out in transition quickly. It’s unclear why the Orange have slowed down, but the numbers show that they have significantly.

Syracuse is down to 138th in overall tempo, averaging 69.2 possessions per game. It is faster than the five seasons prior, but at one point the Orange looked like they’d play around a top 50 or 70 pace. That hadn’t happened since 2009-10.

This chart shows the possessions per game in Syracuse’s games, and how much the Orange have slowed in recent games. The spike in game seven was the overtime win against Buffalo.

Anthony Dabbundo | Senior Staff Writer

San Diego State plays a pack-line defense, similar to that of Virginia. Virginia and SDSU have been vulnerable in the past to transition offense, if offenses can get down the court before they are able to set up in their defenses and pack the paint.

Syracuse might look to go up-tempo in spots to exploit SDSU, even if the Orange have been playing at a much slower pace as the season has progressed. 

Published on March 15, 2021 at 11:39 pm

Contact Anthony: [email protected] | @AnthonyDabbundo