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In the middle of another season perpetually on the NCAA Tournament bubble, with opportunities to change that slowly slipping away, Syracuse (10-6, 4-5 Atlantic Coast) travels to NC State on Tuesday night for its second meeting with the Wolfpack (8-7, 4-6). The Orange won by three points on Jan. 31 but were blown out by Clemson in its one game since.

Quincy Guerrier remains SU’s leading scorer at 15.8 points per game — continuing the strides he’s made in his sophomore season — while all four other starters average double-digit points, too.

Here’s everything you need to know about NC State: 

All-time series

Syracuse leads, 8-6

Last time they played

Syracuse erased a nine-point halftime deficit against the Wolfpack on Jan. 31, using 19 points from Alan Griffin and 17 from Buddy Boeheim to scrape past 76-73. It was NC State’s first game without leading scorer Devon Daniels — who tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season — and Jericole Hellems led the matchup with 24 points and nine rebounds. A final heave from Cam Hayes bounced harmlessly off the backboard, and SU survived to keep its waning Tournament hopes alive.

Kenpom odds 

NC State has a 52% chance to win, with a projected score of 75-74

The Wolfpack report

Since its loss to Syracuse, NC State has played two games — a seven-point loss to UVA and a victory over Boston College — and the formula for replacing Daniels has started to emerge. The strategy revolves around Hellems becoming the focal point on offense, mixed in with forwards Manny Bates and D.J. Funderburk coming off the bench and flirting with double-doubles. 

NC State doesn’t shoot a ton of 3-pointers still, but Braxton Beverly converted on 3-of-5 attempts against the Orange earlier this season. And the Wolfpack’s defense is one of the best statistically in the conference and country, as they rank sixth in steal percentage (12.9) and 45th in block percentage (11.9), per KenPom.

Shannon Kirkpatrick | Presentation Director

How Syracuse beats NC State 

Making more than three shots in a half will certainly help. Syracuse wins this game if Bourama Sidibe plays again and is more effective than his one-point, zero-rebound, four-foul performance against Clemson. His size will help match up with Bates down low much better than Marek Dolezaj’s, and it’ll allow Guerrier and Griffin to focus more on Hellems.

The Orange need to stay aggressive offensive, driving inside and drawing fouls. That’s the formula that worked against Virginia Tech, SU’s best win this season. It could also help Bates get into foul trouble on Tuesday, which he’s struggled with at times this season, with four or more fouls in six games. Joe Girard III driving downhill, just like he did in the second half against Clemson, will be key for Syracuse to accomplish that.

Stat to know: 23.1

NC State forces a turnover on more than one-fifth of its defensive possessions, which ranks 18th-best in the country, per KenPom. Syracuse, for the majority of the season, has taken care of the ball. In five of their last eight games, the Orange have finished with single-digit turnovers, but they opened the season with six consecutive games of 10-plus. Part of the problem came from Girard’s struggles at point guard, but he hasn’t committed more than two turnovers in a game since Jan. 6 against Pittsburgh. 

Player to watch: Manny Bates, forward, No. 15

The first time Syracuse and NC State played, Bates finished with 17 points and 14 rebounds, serving as the source of the Wolfpack’s interior offense and opening up opportunities along the perimeter for Beverly. Sidibe returning to the Orange’s rotation might not help with containing Bates, though, as Sidibe picked up four fouls in 11 minutes against Clemson and lacked the defensive movement that he had when healthy. 

Funderburk and Hellems attracted a lot of attention from the 2-3 zone, and Bates sometimes acted like a decoy underneath the basket to draw Dolezaj away. His ability to directly and indirectly create opportunities for the Wolfpack will force SU’s defense to adjust  — especially around the high post, where it has struggled to defend all season.

Published on February 8, 2021 at 9:06 pm

Contact Andrew: [email protected] | @CraneAndrew