With Syracuse teetering on the bubble heading into its matchup with North Carolina State in the Carrier Dome on Saturday, The Daily Orange spoke with NCAA Tournament guru Patrick Stevens. Stevens’ projections appear in The Washington Post and, in 2014, he was the only bracketologist, out of 121, to correctly pick all 68 teams in the field, per Syracuse.com.

Here’s what he had to say about SU’s chances at an NCAA Tournament bid.

The Daily Orange: Where do you have Syracuse right now, and where would it be if the season were to end today?

Patrick Stevens: I have Syracuse as a nine seed in the West, playing Florida in St. Louis with Xavier as a possible matchup as a one seed. If you look at their profile, and believe me, there’s a spot on the bracket and it’s probably around the seven line, where the bottom falls out. Suddenly you’re looking at teams that really aren’t quite as good and then it gets even worse from there. So there are teams that are like Syracuse that have flaws, without question, such as the loss to St. John’s. That’s the one thing that stands out as much as anything else. But beyond that, there’s not a whole lot that you’re looking at that’s really dreadful. They’re .500 away from home, they’re 7-8 against the Top 100, 5-7 against the Top 50. Neither of which is great, but neither of which is dreadful.

I think Syracuse is in preservation mode as much as anything else … I think they simply have to handle the business they should handle, which very simple for them might mean beat North Carolina State and beat whatever team the wind up playing in the 7-10 or 8-9 type of situation in the ACC tournament, barring complete chaos anywhere else. Right now on the at-large board, which takes out all of the current conference leaders, I have Syracuse 28th. I have them with a four-team buffer with them and the play-in games at the moment, let alone the edge of the field. So you look at them, and they’re not in terrible shape whatsoever at this stage.

D.O.: The NCAA Tournament committee said it would look at the nine-game suspension for Jim Boeheim when determining SU’s spot in the field. Do you do the same with your bracket projections?

P.S.: I haven’t given it much thought. You look at the games that they lost and you say, “How much of a difference would have that have necessarily made?” They lost handily at Miami. They lost by double-digits at Pittsburgh. They were down a bunch at Georgetown without him. Even the St. John’s game, as bad as that was, double-digit loss. The question I ask is how much of a difference would he have made? And I don’t know the answer to that. And frankly I don’t think anyone knows the answer to that. The Clemson game is the one game where you look at it and you think, “Maybe that would have made a difference.” But I think that’s a really hard thing to quantify. At least with a player it’s “OK, you’re taking out 16 points a game. You’re taking out this, you’re taking out that.”

D.O.: How much does it help Syracuse’s seeding when a team like Duke or St. Bonaventure really elevate their play after the Orange already beat them this season?

P.S.: This is an every year deal for every team. You beat a team you think is good in the season and it turns out they’re not worth a whole lot. You beat a team that’s bad early in the season and it turns out that they’re pretty decent. Both of those teams, the Duke game in particular, is helping Syracuse a great deal right now. And at the end of the day, that would not shock me if that is the best thing that’s left on their profile come Selection Sunday. It’s certainly better for them to have Bonaventure in the Top 50 than not. It’s certainly better for them to have Duke playing well now, than not. Is that helping Syracuse’s profile? Yes.

D.O.: Speaking hypothetically, if Syracuse were to lose out, what could things look like for the Orange?

P.S.: That’s going to depend on what a lot of other people do. It’s a 351-team situation with a lot of variables out there. But I would not suggest Syracuse lose their next three games … The variables are reduced to this point that say this: If Syracuse beats N.C. State, loses the two road games, splits in the ACC tournament, I think it’s going to take a lot of absolute wackiness elsewhere to cost them an NCAA Tournament berth.

D.O.: Does it help Syracuse that a team like Louisville is off the board?

P.S.: There are two extra spots in the field this year with Louisville and Southern Methodist not in. Syracuse is two spots closer to the edge of the field if those two teams are eligible, then yeah, there’s a little bit less margin for error. This year, when they talk about taking the top 36 at-large teams, what they’re really talking about is taking the top 37 or 38 because those two teams aren’t going to be in the field.

Published on February 25, 2016 at 10:06 pm

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