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In light of week’s events, experts say conflict in Syria remains complex, could worsen

His voice shook, but he was determined to relay the message. He spoke softly but confidently from his hiding spot.

As a journalist, being overheard by soldiers could mean imprisonment, torture or death.

Less than six months ago, filmmaker Bassel Al Shahade, a film student at Syracuse University, spoke out from his shelter to ‘Democracy Now!’, an independent TV, radio and Internet news program.

‘People are forced to fight back to block out the security forces and make their way out to provide food and supplies,’ he told the hosts. ‘They’re putting people in the position where they have to defend themselves.’

He apologized for keeping his voice low during the broadcast, fearing he would be heard.



Shahade was killed Monday in Homs, Syria, by government security forces while filming the Syrian revolt as a citizen journalist. He was a Fulbright Scholar pursuing a Master of Fine Arts in film in the College of Visual and Performing Arts.
‘His death is also a tragedy for the Syrian people, who have suffered many months of tragic violence as they seek greater freedom for their nation,’ said Chancellor Nancy Cantor in a statement sent to the SU community.

Shahade spent the weekend preceding his death covering the massacre at Houla, a once-calm city now marked with mass graves from a bloodshed that killed 108 people, including 49 children and 34 women, according to a May 30 United Nations report.

But the deaths in this week’s massacre are among 9,000 deaths and tens of thousands of injuries since the uprisings began against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad 15 months ago.

The conflict and uprisings remain complex, and Syria’s future is hazy, experts say. The deaths, the suffering and the pain will only continue.

The end is far from near.

***

Rania Habib is permanently anxious.
Habib, an assistant professor of linguistics and Arabic at SU, is of Syrian descent. Her parents have their main home in Homs.

A home that is now completely damaged.
Most of Habib’s family evacuated the city to a village where the family maintains a second residence, but a looming fear for their safety weighs heavily on Habib’s emotions.

‘I’m always very emotional. For a period of time, I couldn’t know about my sister or her family. I was very stressed and sometimes would just start crying – even at work,’ she said. ‘You can’t control it.’

Habib used to travel to Syria every year but said she likely will not be able to travel there this year. It’s too dangerous, she said. She said she was shocked to hear of the death of Shahade, a student who took the chance she did not.

The last time Habib was in Syria was August, in the midst of the conflict. She first arrived in Damascus at 2:30 a.m. and was advised not to take the three-hour drive to her family’s town because of how dangerous it was to travel between cities at night.

‘I disagreed and asked to keep moving, and thank God nothing happened,’ she said. ‘It’s not necessarily the army you watch out for at night but gangs and armed groups stopping cars on the road.’

She spent the duration of her trip in the safe village where her parents were but had to travel into Homs twice. She departed for the city early in the morning and returned by 3 or 4 p.m. to avoid the clashes.

As soon as she left the city, the shooting started.

Habib said there is aggression on both sides – Assad’s government and the armed opposition. She said she believes that freedom and democracy can’t come about from armed rebels acting as violently as the tyrannical government.

Syria currently faces not only an internal battle but also an external struggle. Outside countries with political and economic interests in the area, such as Russia and China, push their agendas at the cost of the internal fighting, she said.

It is for this reason Habib remains pessimistic, expecting more battles, more massacres and more killing. The ones suffering most, she said, are the Syrian people caught in the middle of a struggle between sects and countries.

Said Habib: ‘I pray for Syria and the people of Syria, and I pray for peace to come soon.’

***

Mehrzad Boroujerdi has been watching the Syrian conflict closely. But Boroujerdi, director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at SU and a professor of political science, finds it difficult to predict the country’s future.

Though the Houla Massacre is said to be a turning point for the violence in Syria, he is not so sure.

‘In the sense of enhancing the diplomatic pressure on Syria, yes, it’s a turning point,’ he said. ‘But in the large scheme of things, considering Obama doesn’t want to get involved and Europe’s a mess, I don’t think the massacre means anything substantial.’

The case in Syria is complex, Boroujerdi said, in the sense that there are a certain number of constituencies in Syria who feel their future lies with the regime rather than the opposition, such as the business community and the Christian minority. Worried about Islamic groups rising to power, they see no option but to support the regime.

The United States and Europe face serious consequences upon involvement. The war could go on too long and be too costly for the countries, he said. If Assad is replaced, groups such as Hezbollah could become involved in Syria, creating even more uncertainty regarding future rule.

Several factors play into the outcome of the conflict, making the country’s future unclear, he said. The regime is simply unwilling to compromise with the opposition. Countries such as Russia and China have important financial dealings with Syria, and neither wants to see a repeat of what happened in Libya, nor do they want to lose the regime as an ally. The two countries are therefore torpedoing any sort of resolution brought up by the U.N.

But what Boroujerdi finds curious about the conflict is the determination of the opposition to fight.

‘No one was under the impression that the opposition could maintain itself for so long and withstand the onslaught of the regime,’ he said.

The rebels have witnessed the massacres and have only become more determined to continue fighting, he said. But Boroujerdi doesn’t believe the rebels can overthrow the regime without substantial support from either the West, Syrian dissidents, Turkey or Saudi Arabia.

The Syrian regime is too ruthless.

‘The degree of brutality the Syrian regime has demonstrated in trying to sort of teach a lesson in engaging these massacres will intimidate the opposition,’ he said.

It’s sickening, shocking and concerning – which is what prevents any sort of resolution in the near future.

Said Boroujerdi: ‘It shows the limitations of government. That in the face of human tragedy, people could sit around and not do much as these things occur. That’s what’s troubling.’

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