Some New Yorkers will be keeping a watchful eye on the other side of the country come Tuesday, as the fate of California’s proposition to legalize marijuana for recreational use could influence the passage of medical marijuana bills in New York. 

Twin bills are currently sitting in the New York state Assembly and Senate that would legalize marijuana for medical use. Should Proposition 19, California’s ballot measure to allow marijuana to be used for recreational purposes, pass on Election Day, political activists predict the stigma for New York legislators to approve medical marijuana may be lifted, though the effects may not be immediate. 

‘A positive outcome for Prop 19 would increase the chance of Democrats stepping up in New York to support medical marijuana,’ said Evan Nison, the campus organizer for the Yes on 19 campaign and former director of Ithaca College’s chapter of New York Patients First, a medical marijuana advocacy group. 

Under Proposition 19, Californians over the age of 21 would be able to personally possess, process, share or transport at most one ounce of marijuana. They would also be able to grow up to 25 square feet on private property. Licensed businesses would be able to sell up to an ounce to customers 21 or older. 

The proposition is about even in the polls, with some saying it will win 48 percent to 44 percent and others saying it will lose 47 percent to 46 percent, according to The New York Times. 

One of the goals of the Yes on 19 campaign is to foster a national discussion on the legalization of marijuana, both recreationally and medicinally, regardless of Tuesday’s outcome, Nison said. The campaign has received volunteer support from across the country, including New York, he said. 

Meanwhile, the twin bills have been sitting in the New York state Legislature since 2009. The Assembly has previously passed other versions of medical marijuana bills twice, only for them to be voted down later in the Senate. The current Assembly version of the bill is in the Codes Committee, and the Senate version has been referred to the Rules Committee. 

Assemblyman Richard Gottfried (D-Manhattan), who sponsored the Assembly version, declined to comment for this article. Sen. Thomas Duane (D-Manhattan), who sponsored the Senate version, could not be reached for comment. 

The front-runner and Democratic candidate for governor, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, has said he would not support legislation to legalize medical marijuana. Carl Paladino, the Republican candidate, on the other hand, called for a referendum to legalize it. 

Current Gov. David Paterson is seen by advocates as more likely than either candidate to sign medical marijuana legislation because of his battle with glaucoma, though he has not officially announced his stance on this issue, said Jay Goldstein, the executive director of the Empire State chapter of the National Organization for the Relaxation of Marijuana Laws. 

Because of the uncertainty in the next governor’s stance, Proposition 19 would have to be passed in the next two to three months to have a direct effect on the current New York bill, Goldstein said. 

‘The cycle is too short,’ he said. 

What’s more likely to have a short-term impact on New York is the fact that New Jersey recently approved medical marijuana, Goldstein said. Either New York patients will flock to New Jersey to get medical marijuana, forcing the New York Legislature to pass its bills, or New Jersey’s law will be successful, encouraging legislators to vote in favor of similar bills in New York, he said. 

California’s current system exemplifies how poor regulation of medical marijuana has led to a number of illegal dispensaries, Goldstein said. But if Proposition 19 is executed well, supporters will be able to point to California as an example of successful marijuana legalization, he said. 

‘There’ll finally be a lab to see what legalization looks like,’ he said. 

But Republicans who are skeptical could cite the evolution of legal medical marijuana to legal recreational marijuana in California as a reason to block the bills in New York, said Nison, the campus organizer for Yes on 19. 

Yet Daniel Fitzpatrick, the former chair and current member of Syracuse University’s College Republicans, said he foresees medical marijuana eventually becoming legal in New York with Proposition 19 giving it a push. Unlike presumptions about his party, Fitzpatrick said he supports medical marijuana, though he has never smoked the drug himself. 

‘It’s not going to happen where Nov. 2, Prop 19 passes and then Nov. 3, medical marijuana passes,’ he said. ‘But possibly in a year.’ 

With the recessed economy and the health care debate, medical marijuana has taken a backseat in New York, said Minda Conroe, president of SU’s College Democrats. Proposition 19 has revitalized discussion somewhat, she said, but there are still larger issues, like the budget, that will most likely be taken care of first. 

One of the main arguments supporting Proposition 19 is that it could help ease California’s $20 billion budget deficit through taxation and reduced costs of prosecuting drug offenders. But even if New York’s medical marijuana bills included taxation, Conroe said she does not think that would be an effective argument in the state. 

‘This state is really blue in New York City, but the rest of the state is pretty conservative, which is something to consider,’ she said. ‘The economic arguments make sense, but it’s still more of a social issue.’ 

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Published on October 27, 2010 at 12:00 pm