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Syracuse has made a complete 180 from this time last season, flipping its conference record from 3-6 to 6-3. With an NCAA Tournament appearance still on the table for SU, it needs some much-needed Quadrant I wins to woo the NCAA Selection Committee before March, and Tuesday night against North Carolina provides the perfect opportunity.

The Tar Heels have won three-straight games and nine of their last 11, looking to win their third game ever in Syracuse. Armando Bacot, the Atlantic Coast Conference’s reigning Player of the Week, has been on a tear with 13 double-doubles so far this season.

Here’s what else to know about North Carolina (14-6, 6-3 ACC) before the matchup:

All-time series

UNC leads 6-15.

Last time they played

Cole Swider erupted for 36 points as Syracuse surprised North Carolina near the end of conference play last season. The Orange led by one with 15.9 seconds left in regulation, but an inbounds pass bounced off of Joe Girard III and landed out of bounds, giving UNC a chance to respond. The Tar Heels’ Caleb Love got off a deep 3-pointer, though Girard’s corner jumper in the final second sent the game to an extra period.

“We put ourselves in a great position with 8-10 seconds to go,” head coach Jim Boeheim said after that game. “I’ll have Love taking that shot all night.”

SU couldn’t keep up its strong play in overtime, getting on the board for the first time off a free throw from Swider with 2:46 left in the period. North Carolina scored eight points during Syracuse’s scoreless stretch and after Swider fouled out with a minute left, the Tar Heels coasted to an 88-79 win.

KenPom Odds

North Carolina has a 59% chance of winning with a projected score of 76-73.

The Tar Heels report

North Carolina is currently ranked fourth in the ACC, heading into the JMA Wireless Dome off three-straight conference wins. For the first two victories of that streak, the Tar Heels easily handled Boston College and Louisville — both teams gave the Orange trouble earlier this year. They most recently defeated NC State, holding the sixth-best offense in the ACC to 69 points.

UNC faced some issues at the beginning of the season, dropping four straight games, including a quadruple-overtime 103-101 loss to Alabama. It has struggled against the best teams in the country, currently 1-6 against Quadrant I teams, according to BetMGM.

The Tar Heels rebounded at the end of non conference play, bringing momentum into ACC play with the third-best scoring offense in the league. They’ve got an adjusted efficiency of 115.4 as well, which ranks 16th nationally, according to KenPom.

Bacot is back for North Carolina, averaging a team-high 17.8 points per game and 11.6 rebounds per game. He leads the ACC in rebounds per game. Bacot scored 17 points against SU last season along with 18 total rebounds — nine offensive and nine defensive. Love and RJ Davis also returned this season, fronting UNC’s production from deep with 37 and 38 3-pointers made so far, respectively.

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How Syracuse beats North Carolina

When North Carolina feeds Bacot down low, the Tar Heels are tough to stop. Even if a play breaks down or a shot is misfired, Bacot is usually there to clean up on the glass. He’ll pester Jesse Edwards for most of the night and it will be up to the other two backline counterparts in SU’s zone to help the big man out.

If SU can win the battle against Bacot, who is less lethal on the defensive end, it can then force turnovers against Love and Davis when they’re handling the ball. The Orange force almost eight turnovers per game and opponents have exposed how Love and Davis can be careless with the ball on the drive or when making a tough pass. Then, SU can use its speed in transition with Judah Mintz or Joe Girard handling the ball, finding options like Maliq Brown on the other end.

The Orange’s regular pick-and-roll with Edwards or Mounir Hima on the offensive end should be effective versus UNC, freeing up Girard for numerous deep shots. But again, Syracuse’s bench needs to step up to add to the offensive production if Edwards has issues versus Bacot down low.

Stat to know: 79.6

For any team facing the Tar Heels, it’s a given that they’re going to score at a high rate, leading the ACC with 79.6 points per game. Tuesday night will show if Syracuse’s zone, which caused issues for other high-powered offenses like Miami, can withstand another test. If the Orange can hold North Carolina under its average, SU has a chance with Girard in full form. But if it can’t, UNC could embarrass Syracuse at home by scoring 100 points, something it’s already done three times this season.

Player to watch: Armando Bacot, forward, No. 14

Like every other team facing North Carolina this season, the Orange definitely have Bacot at the top of their scouting report. He averages a double-double, but more importantly, Bacot is irreplaceable on the offensive glass. He averages 4.53 offensive rebounds per game,behind only Purdue’s Zach Edey and Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe for the most in the nation.

Published on January 23, 2023 at 11:17 pm

Contact Anish: [email protected] | @anish_vasu