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After letting up a possible win to North Carolina, Syracuse stumbled out of the gates at Virginia Tech and never recovered. Now, the Orange are on a two-game losing streak for the first time since late November when they dropped three-straight games to St. John’s, Bryant and Illinois.

At times after wins over teams like Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, SU looked to be a bubble NCAA Tournament team, but now sits at 13-9. With the glaring nonconference losses and close calls throughout the season becoming more and more omnipresent, Syracuse is running out of time to build its NCAA Tournament resume. Next up, the Orange take on Virginia at home, a team that SU hung close with on Jan. 7 but ultimately improved to 3-2 in conference play.

After the game, head coach Jim Boeheim said the Cavaliers were “too much.” Before their second matchup of the season, here’s everything you need to know about Virginia.

All time series

Virginia leads 12-6.

Last time they played

Syracuse is bookending the month of January with games against the premiere team in the ACC. The Orange traveled down to Virginia on Jan. 7 after narrowly taking down Boston College and Louisville. After giving up a lead to Pittsburgh, it was going to be a test of whether or not the young Syracuse team could hang with the upper echelon of the conference. It faltered down the stretch and proved that it wasn’t ready to do so. The Orange went into the halftime break down by nine points, but within striking distance of a team that was beginning to warm up from beyond the arc against the 2-3 zone.

Then, Virginia jumped out to a 12-0 run to begin the first half and effectively thwarted Syracuse’s chances of coming back and upsetting the then-No. 11 team in the country. Though Joe Girard III totalled a game-high 19 points and Mintz (18), Maliq Brown (10 points and eight rebounds) and Jesse Edwards (10 rebounds) provided a solid effort, the Orange fell behind by as many as 23 points. A late-game run and actually out-scoring the Cavaliers in the second half wasn’t enough to dig the Orange out of their hole.

Close losses since then-No. 17 Miami and North Carolina have continued to show that this iteration of Syracuse might be unable to close out big games against the top teams in the conference. This makes the loss to Virginia on the road more of a commonality instead of an aberration.

KenPom odds

Virginia has a 66% chance to win, with a projected score of 70-65.

The Cavaliers report

The win over Syracuse kick-started a six-game winning streak that the Cavaliers now ride entering Monday night, and they sit at 8-2 in the ACC atop the conference. Armaan Franklin just passed 1,000 career points at Virginia and the Cavaliers are rolling. They are the 20th-best team in the country in 3-point shooting, a fact that Virginia used to down the Orange earlier this month. It has five players that are firing at over a 30% clip from beyond the arc, and are shooting 38.2% on 3s as a team.

Also, the Cavaliers’ turnover percentage (14.6%) is ninth-best in the country, partly contributing to them not allowing a single team to score more than 69 points. UVA is known for its slow pace and this team ranks 360th in average tempo this season. With an inexperienced lineup, one that has let the emotion of the moment in late stages of the game get the best of it, the Cavaliers are looking to ensure Syracuse dips below its season average of 75 points per game.

How Syracuse beats Virginia

First, Girard needs a bounce-back performance against Virginia if the Orange even want a chance in this game against one of the best defensive teams in the country. Struggling in one game against Virginia Tech on the road is one thing, but following up that tasking performance with the Cavaliers is a tall task, one that is likely to prove insurmountable at points for Syracuse, which hit a late-season snag. Mintz needs to quickly learn how to play within himself and turn in clean sheet performances.

Facilitating the court, and creating opportunities for Girard, Benny Williams and Chris Bell to score, is what’s going to keep Syracuse close to Virginia. And there can be no slow start to this game that the Orange are accustomed to coming out to. Those long runs, especially catalyzed by turnovers and slow transition play from Syracuse — which buried it against North Carolina — need to be mitigated against Virginia, or the Orange are going to have a difficult time making any headway.

They also just need to stay within themselves. Miami and North Carolina were such costly meltdowns that they’ve likely derailed a season that could have ended at the NCAA Tournament. If they want one last gasp to their season, to postseason play or to a better position in the ACC Tournament, they need to shoot better than they did last time against Virginia and more from inside the paint. This will be extremely challenging against a team that allows just 44.7% shooting from inside the arc.

Stat to know: 7.5%

Virginia’s 7.5% steal percentage ranks 20th in the country. While the Orange average an 11% steal percentage this season, it’s been key turnovers during the late stages of close games that have hindered Syracuse throughout. Virginia is already known as one of the nation’s top defensive teams and this season is no exception. So if Syracuse begins to hurt itself by coughing up the ball and prematurely stopping its possessions, the Cavaliers are going to easily waltz to a season sweep of the Orange.

Player to watch: Armaan Franklin, guard, No. 4

Stephanie Zaso | Digital Design Director

Last time Syracuse played Virginia, Franklin led the Cavaliers with 16 points and went 4-for-9 on 3-pointers en route to a win over the Orange. Franklin was in the midst of what is now nine-straight games notching double-digit points throughout a massive winning streak for the Cavaliers. He is also shooting 41% from beyond the arc and is likely to give Syracuse fits once again. Though he doesn’t have the assist numbers that some ACC guards do, he is still going to generate a great deal of offense and is likely to penetrate Syracuse’s 2-3 zone.

Published on January 29, 2023 at 11:38 pm

Contact Anthony: [email protected] | @anthonyalandt