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Following a 25-point loss to Duke, Syracuse travels to face UNC on Monday for its final road game of the regular season. The Orange will then return home to the Carrier Dome on Saturday for a home game against Miami before ACC Tournament play opens.

In the loss to the Blue Devils, Benny Williams, Bourama Sidibe and John Bol Ajak all played a season-high in minutes — logging 30, 26 and 13, respectively — as head coach Jim Boeheim turned to an unusual lineup combination when Cole Swider and Jimmy Boeheim were ineffective. Buddy Boeheim led the Orange with 23 points while Joe Girard III added 18 in their second consecutive defeat.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Tar Heels before their meeting with Syracuse:

All-time series

North Carolina leads 14-6.

Last time they played

With Syracuse entering off consecutive losses and needing wins to stay alive for a possible NCAA Tournament bid, the Orange held off a comeback push from North Carolina in the final minute. Kadary Richmond got injured and Jesse Edwards fouled out, but the Orange escaped with a 72-70 win in the Carrier Dome. Girard missed two of his four free throws during the final 13 seconds and Garrison Brooks hit a jumper with four seconds left to pull the Tar Heels within two, but SU ran out the clock to preserve a Quadrant II win.

Buddy led SU with 26 points, connecting on 6-of-13 3-pointers. And before leaving with the injury, Richmond scored six points, produced four steals and added 10 assists. Despite being outrebounded by 20 (53-33), the Orange limited North Carolina to 4-for-20 shooting from beyond the arc.

KenPom odds

North Carolina has a 74% chance to win, with a projected score of 84-77.

The UNC report

North Carolina won its most recent game in an 84-74 victory against NC State, but it lost senior forward Leaky Black in the first half due to a hyperextended knee. It was the Tar Heels’ ninth win in the last 11 games after losing four of their previous eight, snapping them back onto the NCAA Tournament bubble with two regular season games left.

Behind the country’s 32nd-best 3-point percentage (37.3), the Tar Heels have assembled the No. 25-ranked offense in terms of adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom. Armando Bacot and Caleb Love average 16.3 and 15.3 points per game, respectively, while three players — Love, Brady Manek and RJ Davis — have made 38% or more of their shots from beyond the arc.

UNC ranks fifth nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, and it’s only been outrebounded by an opponent three times across the entire season. But North Carolina struggles to generate steals and sits 222nd for defensive 3-point percentage, per KenPom.

How Syracuse beats the Tar Heels

The Orange found ways to limit the prolific 3-point shooting of Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, holding the pair of teams to a combined 16-for-55 from beyond the arc, and they’ll need to execute a similar strategy against North Carolina.

Additionally, Bacot could generate a performance like Notre Dame’s Paul Atkinson Jr. did against Syracuse last week — when he scored 20 points and grabbed 17 rebounds — if he’s not contained around the rim by Frank Anselem and Sidibe. The Tar Heels, like the Orange, tend to only use their bench for limited minutes, so forcing UNC’s forwards into foul trouble could prevent some of those difficulties. And because of North Carolina’s 3-point defense, finding a way to get Buddy, Girard and Swider into a rhythm would help spark the offense’s ability to match the Tar Heels’ pace.

Stats to know: 31.1%, 14.2%

Bacot’s defensive and offensive rebounding percentages rank seventh and 37th in the country. He’s the leading rebounder in the ACC by more than four per game, and Bacot had grabbed 160 more rebounds this season than Swider, Syracuse’s leading rebounder, who averages 6.7 rebounds per game.

Player to watch: Brady Manek, forward, No. 45

Manek has attempted and made the most 3s on the Tar Heels, taking 169 shots and connecting on 65 of them. He started for four years at Oklahoma before transferring to North Carolina in the offseason, joining first-year head coach Hubert Davis’ roster.

Manek scored a season-high 24 points against Louisville on Feb. 1, and he made a season-high six 3s against Duke four days later. The 6-foot-9 forward from Harrah, Oklahoma, is also one of four UNC players averaging double-digit points per game (13.9) this season. He’ll likely serve as one of the primary 3-point threats against the Orange, commanding attention from Swider and Jimmy — trying to prevent him from making four or more 3-pointers for the seventh time this season.

Published on February 27, 2022 at 9:19 pm

Contact Andrew: [email protected] | @CraneAndrew