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Syracuse travels to Tallahassee to face Florida State in both teams’ Atlantic Coast Conference opener. The Orange are coming off a rollercoaster 112-110 victory over Indiana in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge on Tuesday. SU blew an 18-point lead and then an eight-point one with a minute remaining in regulation. But Syracuse showed enough resilience to bounce back in overtime and then rally once more in the second overtime period for the win.

Buddy Boeheim was clutch down the stretch for SU, scoring on multiple isolation situations. Joe Girard III sank the game-winning free throws when the game was tied and less than a second remained in double-overtime.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Seminoles (5-2, 0-0 ACC) before they host SU (4-3, 0-0 ACC) on Saturday afternoon:

All-time series

Syracuse leads 7-5.

Last time they played

Syracuse didn’t play Florida State in January 2021 because the game was postponed — and then couldn’t be rescheduled — as part of the Orange’s COVID-pause. SU paused all basketball-related activities after a member of UBuffalo, Syracuse’s opponent on Dec. 19, tested positive. Both Girard and Buddy contracted COVID-19 during that pause as well, head coach Jim Boeheim said then.

When SU last played Florida State in February 2020 before the pandemic, the Seminoles led by eight points at halftime but SU came back. In the final two minutes, FSU made two jumpers, a layup and went 4-of-4 from the free throw line. Elijah Hughes fired a logo 3-pointer as time expired for what would’ve forced overtime, but he watched the ball rim in-and-out as SU lost 80-77. The Orange posted 77 points against the conference’s best defense but wasted an opportunity at an upset bid by not playing well enough defensively.

KenPom odds

FSU has a 75% chance of winning with a predicted score of 80-72.

The FSU Report

The Seminoles lost three of the four scorers that averaged double-digit points last season to the NBA or NBA G-League (Scottie Barnes, RaiQuan Gray and M.J. Walker). In their place, Caleb Mills, Malik Osborne and Matthew Cleveland have stepped up and are all averaging double-digit points.

The Seminoles don’t have one star offensive player. Mills leads them through seven games with 12.1 points per game, but Osborne is right behind him with 11.6 points per game. Osborne leads the team in rebounds per game and 3-pointers, and FSU ranks 40th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.

The Seminoles are a well-balanced team though, ranking 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re coming off a 28-point thrashing at the hands of No. 2 Purdue (and soon to be No. 1), and also lost by 16 points to Florida in the second game of the year.

Against Purdue on Tuesday, FSU was without starting point guard RayQuan Evans and starting center Tanor Ngom and was instead forced to start two freshmen. After just 10 minutes, the Seminoles already trailed by double-digits. FSU simply couldn’t contain the top-ranked offense in the nation.

Evans missed the Purdue game to attend his brother’s funeral and Ngom was absent with a right knee strain and likely won’t return for the SU game. Backup forward and rotational player Naheem McLeod was also out for Tuesday’s game but was listed as day-to-day with an ankle injury. It is unclear whether he and Evans will return for the Syracuse game.

How Syracuse beats FSU

Boeheim said the Orange did not play a good defensive game against Indiana, and FSU’s a balanced team that could make SU pay. Against the Hoosiers, SU led by 16 points at halftime, but Boeheim said that was a product of poor Indiana shooting, not good Syracuse defense.

The Orange had momentary success when switching to a 1-3-1 zone instead of the 2-3, something that Buddy said they might turn to once again to better guard the high post. Syracuse is still conceding many corner 3s, something it’ll need to limit against the 71st-ranked 3-point-shooting Seminoles, according to KenPom.

SU needs to shoot lights out like it did in the first half against Indiana repeatedly throughout the season. It’s adjusted offensive efficiency has already climbed to 13th, and SU just has to develop consistency in its shooting performances. The Orange have the weapons to cause problems for FSU, and if they can get center Jesse Edwards going on the offensive end, that’ll open up looks for Girard, Buddy, Swider and Jimmy Boeheim from beyond the arc.

Against a good turnover-forcing unit in the Seminoles, Syracuse needs to win the turnover battle to compensate for its continuous rebounding struggles. Against Indiana, SU did that, and it paid off.

Stat to know: 12th

Florida State ranks 12th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, per KenPom. The Seminoles are 21st in block percentage and 8th in steal percentage. Their non-steal turnover percentage is far lower, and like the Orange, they aren’t a good rebounding team. But forcing turnovers makes up for that, and if the Seminoles can force Girard and others into errant passes or mistakes, FSU will be in a good position to win.

Player to watch: Caleb Mills, No. 4, guard

Mills posted a career-high 22 points despite Florida State’s loss to Purdue on Tuesday. He kept the game within eight points midway through the second half before the Boilermakers ran away with it behind a 17-2 surge. The redshirt sophomore is a solid shooter from beyond the arc — he’s 8-of-20 this season — and relatively consistent from inside, too. He’s also a key part of FSU’s defense, ranking 28th in the nation in steal percentage, per KenPom. If the Seminoles are missing starters or rotational players on Saturday, they’ll need Mills to step up once more.

Published on December 1, 2021 at 6:55 pm

Contact Roshan: [email protected] | @Roshan_f16