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For the next 18 games, and possibly one other pending a rescheduled contest against Georgia Tech, Syracuse will complete its Atlantic Coast Conference schedule, beginning with Virginia on Saturday in the Carrier Dome. SU has won both of its games following a COVID-19 pause, the latest coming against Cornell on Wednesday, and now looks to piece together its first three-game winning streak of the season.

Virginia hasn’t played since Dec. 22 when the Cavaliers lost by 17 to Clemson. They’ve also fallen to James Madison, Iowa, Houston and Navy — with the Dukes and Midshipmen ranked 164th and 132nd in the country, per KenPom — and only have two starters averaging double-digits despite not turning to their bench often.

Here’s what you need to know about UVA before the 17th meeting between the Cavaliers and the Orange, 13 of which have occurred since SU joined the ACC in 2013-14. 

All-time series

Virginia leads 10-6.

Last time they played

Reece Beekman connected on a 3-pointer from the right wing as the final buzzer sounded, giving Virginia a 72-69 victory in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. Beekman hadn’t scored in the game until that point, and had accumulated just a 26.9% 3-point percentage throughout the season prior to that point. But it sent the Orange into a stretch of uncertain waiting, closing in on the point where they’d see if a 21-point victory over NC State and a late-season surge was enough to crack the NCAA Tournament field.

Buddy Boeheim led Syracuse with 31 points, hitting 10-of-17 shots from the field and 5-of-8 from 3, while Guerrier added 14. The Orange led by three at halftime, jumping ahead via a 10-2 burst near the midway point of the frame, but as the game went inside two minutes, the Cavaliers held a six-point advantage. Two free throws from Buddy tied the game with 29 seconds left, but then Beekman’s 3 sent No. 1 seed Virginia into the conference semifinals.

KenPom odds

Syracuse has a 64% chance to win, with a projected score of 66-62.

The Cavaliers report

Compared to how past Virginia teams have started under head coach Tony Bennett, the Cavaliers have struggled to string together wins and haven’t done so since defeating Providence and Lehigh on Nov. 23 and 26, respectively. UVA’s defense still ranks as a top-60 unit in terms of adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage, per KenPom, but its offense has only topped 70 points three times all season. A 31.7 3-point percentage ranks 241st. A 26.1 offensive rebounding percentage ranks 238th. And they have some of the slowest average possession lengths on both offense and defense, leading to fewer possessions per game than most teams. 

Jayden Gardner, who transferred from East Carolina after making first- and second-team American Athletic Conference honors the past two seasons, leads the Cavaliers in scoring at 14.8 points per game. He’s followed by Armaan Franklin — a junior who spent the previous two seasons at Indiana — and Kihei Clark at 11.5 and 9.8 points per game, respectively. 

How Syracuse beats Virginia

It’ll likely end up being a low-scoring game between the two teams, but the Orange win this game by dictating the pace offensively — not allowing UVA’s pack-line defense to slow down ball movement and lengthen possessions. If SU can top 75 points, that’ll put it in position to secure a win, given how the Cavaliers have struggled offensively throughout the season. If Buddy and Cole Swider can’t convert their 3s, though, Syracuse will need its mid-range jumpers from the elbow-area to fall. Kadin Shedrick’s presence inside will make it difficult for Jesse Edwards and Jimmy Boeheim, along with other post players, to get going, meaning that the Orange will need their guards to be efficient against the pack-line defense.

Stat to know: 36.9% and 34.0%

Both Syracuse and Virginia both have two of the lowest minutes continuity numbers in the country this season, according to KenPom. UVA’s 36.9% ranks 256th, while SU’s 34.0% ranks 273rd — meaning that 36.9% and 34.0% of the team’s minutes this season have been filled by the same players from last season, well below the Division I average of 48.9%. 

For the Orange, only Buddy and Joe Girard III return as starters, while Edwards stepped up into a starting role after averaging 8.9 minutes per game last year. And for the Cavaliers, two starters are new, while Clark returns and Shedrick has been elevated to a starting role. Beekman, known for his defense, has become a regular starter after starting 20 of 25 games last year, too.

Player to watch: Kadin Shedrick, forward, No. 21

In Virginia’s last game against Clemson, Shedrick only scored two points in 22 minutes, with both coming on free throws, but he recorded six blocks — his career-high. The redshirt sophomore inherited the role that Jay Huff abandoned once he graduated, and Shedrick holds the fourth-best block percentage in the country, per KenPom, at 16.8. He’s compiled 35 this season, and no other Virginia player has more than nine.

Shedrick’s presence near the rim could make it difficult for a Syracuse team that’s scored 40 or more points in the paint in two of its last three games, relying on those shots when 3-point attempts either don’t materialize or don’t fall. Shedrick only averages 6.3 points per game, but in what could likely turn into a low-scoring game, his ability to alter shots and deter the Orange from focusing on interior offense could make more of a difference as the game unfolds.

Published on December 31, 2021 at 6:36 pm

Contact Andrew: [email protected] | @CraneAndrew