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Syracuse’s momentum in Saturday’s overtime win against Buffalo flipped long before Alan Griffin’s game-saving block, before Quincy Guerrier’s clutch corner 3 and before the full-court press jolted the Orange with energy. 

It turned when coach Jim Boeheim subbed point guard Joe Girard III for Kadary Richmond five minutes into the second half. Richmond, a freshman, played the remainder of the second half and overtime, dazzling with 13 points, eight rebounds, five-assists and game-changing defense at the top of the zone and in the press. 

The performance wasn’t the first time Richmond provided a spark of relief this year. He’s led Syracuse (6-1, 1-0 Atlantic Coast) in box-plus minus and the ACC in steals per game. As Boeheim said in the preseason, “the players decide who plays,” and Richmond has certainly earned more run.  

Still, SU needs all three of its guards — Richmond, Girard and Buddy Boeheim — to play their best to reach its potential. It doesn’t matter who starts. Boeheim said as much after Buffalo. But Richmond’s consistency and defensive acumen has raised SU’s ceiling. It’s clear he’s the best point guard on the roster so far. Boeheim should find as many minutes for Richmond as possible, whether it’s in the starting lineup or otherwise. 

Boeheim doesn’t care what the media thinks he should do. He made that clear after the season-opener, when he told a former football beat reporter “this isn’t football,” adding, “I don’t give a sh*t what you or anyone else thinks or writes.”

After 45 years of coaching, he probably shouldn’t care. By any metric, Boeheim’s one of the best college coaches ever. He’s enjoyed the benefit of the doubt longer than I’ve been alive.

That said, his insistence that Girard remains Syracuse’s starting point guard has been curious, given the sophomore’s struggles and Richmond’s revelatory play. After the Boston College blowout win — Girard’s best shooting performance of 2020 — Boeheim rushed to his defense unprompted, hounding the shadowy forces calling for his benching. 

“Everybody out there knows who should be playing here except me,” Boeheim said sarcastically. “Let’s just stick with the guys who we know what they can do, who’ve already proved themselves, and if they really struggle for a long period of time, there will be adjustments made. But you don’t make adjustments after one game.” 

But Girard’s 2020 struggles aren’t limited to one game. Known for his scoring punch, Girard has the lowest offensive rating on the team, per KenPom (91.2). He’s shooting 31.6% from the floor, has a sub-two assist to turnover ratio and has looked lethargic at times on the defensive end.

Still, Boeheim reverted back to the “one game” remark after Saturday’s overtime win over Buffalo, in which Girard shot 1-for-6 in 16 minutes and was supplanted in the second half by Richmond. 

Kadary Richmond performs better than Joe Girard III in several offensive metrics, our beat writer argues. Courtesy of Dennis Nett | Syracuse.com

Girard’s not a scrub. Far from it. Since 1992, only eight SU freshmen have scored more points per game than he did last year. He can be a plus defender when he’s opportunistic, jumping into passing lanes. And when his perimeter shots are falling, he’s outstanding. Even when they’re not — like in his eight-assist, zero-turnover performance in last year’s ACC tournament game against North Carolina — he’s shown occasional glimpses of playmaking growth. 

But that playmaking ability has been rare. When he’s not making shots, Girard becomes significantly less effective. Syracuse is 15-11 (.577 winning percentage) in games when he’s hit less than 3 triples compared to 9-4 (.692) when he does. 

Girard’s flaws are there. He has some limitations breaking down defenders and getting into the paint off the dribble. Boeheim enables him with a green light to continue shooting through slumps, leading to inefficient numbers — he has a great stroke, but he’s a career 32.5% 3-point shooter.

Richmond, meanwhile, gives SU athleticism and length at the top of the zone that Girard simply can’t. The freshman has also shown terrific explosion and playmaking ability for a player who only operated the point guard position for one year in high school. His assist-to-turnover ratio (2.16) is the best on the team. 

“I think he gets in the lane better than anybody we’ve had in a while,’’ Boeheim said. “He makes good decisions in there. He can finish. He’s a good defender.’’

While not a great outside shooter at this point — Richmond’s 2-for-9 from deep — he plays to his strengths by attacking the rim and either finishing himself or finding others. Analytics website Shot Quality ranks Richmond in the 70th percentile in shot selection, compared to Girard’s 17th percentile. His drive and kick to Guerrier in the opposite corner led to a pivotal 3 in overtime against Buffalo. 

Richmond leads SU with an 11 box plus-minus, while Girard is sixth with a 2.4 mark (box plus-minus estimates the points per 100 possessions a player contributes above an average player). Plus-minus stats can be misleading and shouldn’t be used alone, but they confirm the eye test in this case. Buddy called Richmond one of the best zone defenders he’s ever seen. Yet he’s had games with eight, 19 and 20 minutes. 

It doesn’t necessarily mean Richmond should start. Boeheim indicated in the preseason that the rotation is a meritocracy that rewards strong in-game play, and Richmond has earned more playing time. His complementary, low-usage style should help Boeheim find him more minutes, as he fits with just about any combination of players.

Against Northeastern, Richmond and Girard played extended minutes together while Griffin was “in a funk.” The duo worked, proving the two guards complement each other. Girard is a capable off-ball scorer, and might even be more comfortable in that role. A better balance between catch-and-shoot situations and pick-and-rolls could get Girard better looks. In 2019-20, Girard ranked in the 68th percentile as a spot-up shooter, slightly above his mark as a primary ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, per Synergy Sports.

Starting versus coming off the bench is somewhat semantic. Boeheim could start Girard, see if he has his shooting stroke and reassess based on that. When Girard is on from 3, SU is tough to beat. But if he misses his first few attempts, SU should roll with Richmond. 

That’s essentially what Boeheim did against Buffalo, when Richmond played 32 minutes to Girard’s 16. But when Boeheim was asked if there’s any truth to the idea of starting Girard, seeing if he has his stroke and going from there, he said that was “completely” mischaracterizing the rotation. 

“Let me explain this to you: We’ve got three guards, and we’re going to use all three,” Boeheim said. “If you guys want to go coach, go get a high school team somewhere and coach.” 

Boeheim’s right about the first part — SU needs all three guards. But right now, the minutes distribution is slightly disproportionate compared to the actual on-court production, with Richmond averaging 26 minutes per game compared to Girard’s 31 and Buddy’s 34. 

Based on the first seven games, Richmond’s been more consistent than Girard, and lineups with him at point guard give Syracuse a better chance to win. That much is true, regardless of who is announced in the starting lineup introductions. 

And though Boeheim doesn’t care what the media thinks, in this case, Richmond’s ascension is clear.  

Danny Emerman is a senior staff writer at The Daily Orange, where his column appears occasionally. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @DannyEmerman.

Published on December 20, 2020 at 3:08 pm