Brad Banks, Ken Dorsey, Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Carson Palmer. Alphabetical is about the only order not open to debate.

On Dec. 14 at the Yale Club in New York, one of these elite players will be presented the Heisman Trophy. Any one could finish first and any — with the exception of Dorsey — could finish fifth.

It therefore seems useless to attempt to predict the future. History, analyzed in the context of seven categories, may instead be the most accurate approach to handicapping the Heisman.

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Classy affair

McGahee is at an immediate disadvantage because no sophomore has ever won the Heisman. Michael Vick is the only non-senior or junior to place among the top 10 in votes in the previous four years. Vick finished a distant third to Ron Dayne as a freshman and sixth as a sophomore.

Banks, Dorsey, Johnson and Palmer are all seniors, as were the last four Heisman winners (Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke, Ron Dayne and Ricky Williams).

Advantage: Banks, Dorsey, Johnson, Palmer

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Location, location, location

Los Angeles-based sports radio hosts have been puckering up to Palmer for weeks while whining about a coastal bias. They might be right about the Left (out) Coast. Marcus Allen in 1981 was the last West Coast Heisman winner, and in the 67 years of the trophy’s existence, only nine winners played west of Nebraska. Four of them, to Palmer’s benefit, were Trojans.

The location disadvantage works against Banks as well. You have to go all the way back to Nile Kinnick in 1939 to find a Heisman winner from Iowa. Satellite TV and SportsCenter offer Banks publicity that Kinnick never enjoyed, but Banks does not play in Miami, within driving distance of New York or, for that matter, in Los Angeles.

Advantage: Dorsey, Johnson, McGahee

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Being in position

The other bias can be a player’s position, but no one on this list is a defensive player so none need to worry.

Of the 67 Heisman winners, 21 were quarterbacks and 38 were either halfbacks, running backs or tailbacks. The last two were quarterbacks, the two before that tailbacks.

Advantage: All

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Stat electricity

Which stats hit the hardest? Two in particular.

Dorsey’s career record (37-1) is presently one of the most respected and discussed statistics in sports. No one at Miami — not Jim Kelly, not Vinny Testaverde, not Steve Walsh, not Gino Torretta, not Craig Erickson, not Bernie Kosar — won like Dorsey has won.

Then there is Johnson, who became only the ninth player ever to rush for 2,000 yards. Five of the previous eight — Allen (1981), Mike Rozier (1983), Barry Sanders (1988), Rashaan Salaam (1994) and Williams (1998) — were delivered the Heisman.

Johnson’s 8.03 yards per carry established an NCAA record, but well-documented shortcomings are three numbers: 68, 78 and 66. These are his rushing totals against Iowa, Michigan and Ohio State, respectively, the three teams that beat Penn State.

Advantage: Dorsey, Johnson

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The best season

This is, after all, what the award recognizes, the most dominant season-long performance by an individual.

By definition, that person is Johnson, Banks or Palmer. Johnson rushed for 20 touchdowns and 2,015 yards, including 1,396 in his final six games. Banks completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,369 yards, 25 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Palmer connected at a 63-percent clip for 3,639 yards, 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Dorsey did not throw for 3,000 yards and McGahee, with one game remaining, has yet to clear 1,500 rushing.

Advantage: Banks, Johnson, Palmer

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Team success

Miami should win its second national championship under Dorsey. The Hurricanes ride a 33-game unbeaten streak into Saturday’s matchup with Virginia Tech. McGahee’s 1,481 yards (6.6 per carry) seem to be helping.

Advantage: Dorsey, McGahee

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Split decision

Dorsey and McGahee will divide votes among those who believe the trophy winner should come from Miami. A split in the vote could cancel out the edge they own because of an undefeated season.

Advantage: Banks, Johnson, Palmer

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Your Heisman Trophy winner? By this system: Larry Johnson. Dorsey finishes second. Banks and Palmer tie for third, and McGahee, who should be the favorite next season, finishes fifth.

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Waiting game

Who is in a BCS game and who is out? That will be clarified this weekend. For now, this much is for sure:

Provided Miami takes care of Virginia Tech on Saturday, two undefeateds, BCS No. 1 Miami (11-0) and No. 2 Ohio State (13-0), meet in the Fiesta Bowl for the national championship.

Miami will be the Big East’s lone BCS team, while the Big Ten announced that No. 5 Iowa (11-1) will play in a BCS game. That takes care of three of the eight BCS spots.

No. 3 Georgia (11-1) basically hosts Arkansas (9-3) Saturday — the game is in Atlanta — for the SEC championship. The victor will be spoiled with a trip to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl. Assume Georgia wins its first-ever appearance in the league title game, taking the fourth spot.

No. 4 USC (10-2) will play in a BCS game. All that remains to be determined is where. A Washington State (9-2) loss at UCLA this weekend makes USC (10-2) Pac-10 champs and Rose Bowl bound. Assume Washington State wins, giving the Cougars a conference title and berth in the Rose Bowl, likely against Iowa. Eliminate a fifth and sixth spot.

The Big 12 title game pits No. 7 Oklahoma (10-2) against No. 12 Colorado (9-3) for a BCS bid. Eliminate a seventh spot.

Florida State (9-4) won the ACC and secured a spot despite its ranking (No. 14) in the BCS.

In this scenario, you could see the following matchups:

Fiesta Bowl Miami vs. Ohio State

Rose Bowl Washington State vs. Iowa

Orange Bowl Oklahoma vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl Georgia vs. USC

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Solich husks staff

Nebraska coach Frank Solich fired three assistant coaches Monday in the wake of a 7-6 (3-5 Big 12) regular season, the Cornhuskers’ worst in 41 years. Solich’s decision, effective immediately, came one day before Nebraska Athletics Director Bill Byrne accepted the vacant AD position at Texas A&M. The reasonable assumption is that Solich cut loose some of his staff — including 30-year assistant George Darlington — in an attempt to save his own job when a new AD is hired.

The university reportedly will pay a combined $525,000-plus to buy out defensive coordinator Craig Bohl, defensive ends coach Nelson Barnes and secondary coach Darlington, all of whom were under contract through June 2004. Darlington is the surprise fire, insomuch as he arrived in Lincoln, Neb., as an assistant in 1973 and worked with Solich — a longtime Nebraska assistant — for the past 24 seasons. Defensive line coach Jeff Jamrog and a grad assistant will coordinate the defense in a bowl game, which will be Nebraska’s 34th straight, an NCAA record.

Solich also announced that he will no longer double as offensive coordinator, ending a Nebraska tradition carried over from the Tom Osborrne era (1973-97).

Including the final two games of last season — a 62-36 embarrassment at Colorado and a 37-14 loss to Miami in the Rose Bowl — the Cornhuskers are 7-8 in their last 15 games.

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This and that

SU’s Paul Pasqualoni should be thankful he does not coach at Texas A&M. Because, he’d likely not be coaching at Texas A&M any longer. Despite a 123-47-2 record, no losing seasons in his 14 years and an upset of then-No. 1 Oklahoma this season, the university fired coach R.C. Slocum. A&M let Slocum go Monday, three days after a 50-20 embarrassment against Texas that ended the Aggies season at 6-6 (3-5 Big 12). Since 1990, only Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno have won more games than Slocum. … It’s worth noting that Texas A&M’s first-year president, Robert Gates, showed Slocum the door without counseling AD Wally Groff, who reportedly stands behind Slocum. Shortly after Gates — a former CIA director — arrived, Groff agreed to resign Dec. 31 so the new president could bring in his own team of administrators. The search for a new coach will be orchestrated by Nebraska’s outgoing AD, Byrne, who was a part of two outright national titles at Nebraska. … Never mind Notre Dame’s players. The ND athletic department has considerable reason to become the world’s biggest supporter of UCLA on Saturday. A Bruins win over Washington State would open up an at-large BCS berth in the Orange Bowl that likely would be awarded to the Irish. The Orange Bowl payout — $13.6 million — would go entirely to Notre Dame because the school is not aligned with a conference. In all other cases, bowl money is awarded to the participants’ conferences and then divided among the member schools. … Should Washington State lose, Notre Dame’s stiffest competition for a slot in the Orange Bowl would come from Texas or Kansas State, the latter team which Syracuse humiliated, 26-3, in last season’s Insight.com Bowl. The Wildcats are 10-2 (with losses to Colorado and Texas by a combined seven points) and ranked eighth in the BCS. The Wildcats promised Orange Bowl organizers Monday that the school will purchase at least 25,000 tickets — or one-third of Pro Player Stadium’s capacity — if selected. … Dwight Freeney’s official NCAA single-season sack record of 17.5 fell in one year to Arizona State’s Terrell Suggs. Suggs, a 6-foot-3, 252-pound end, leads Division I with 20 sacks. … Syracuse’s resting place, as determined by CBS Sportsline, is No. 94 of 117 teams.

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Line of the week

Who would be more appropriate to offer our final quoteworthy statement than Joe Paterno? From the colorful Penn State skipper, whose team accepted a bid to the Capital One (formerly Citrus) Bowl in Orlando on New Year’s Day: ‘I cannot tell you how many people, including my own family, have said to me, ‘Where are you going?’ My mother-in-law is driving me nuts.’

Remember, Paterno is 75.

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V.I.P. M.I.A.

QB Jason Gesser, Washington State: The Cougar quarterback and Pac-10’s Co-Offensive Player of the Year will be a game-time decision Saturday when Washington State attempts to play its way into the Rose Bowl. Gesser practiced Tuesday for the first time since Nov. 23, when he sustained a high right ankle sprain, pulled calf muscle and bruised knee in the fourth quarter of a triple-overtime loss to Washington. Cougars’ coach Mike Price called Gesser ’50-50′ and said ‘no one’s going to know until Saturday at 1:30 p.m.’

Published on December 4, 2002 at 12:00 pm