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After earning a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament and avoiding a play-in game, Syracuse opens with a game against No. 6 seed San Diego State (23-4, 14-3 Mountain West) on Friday. The Aztecs won 14 straight games en route to the MWC title and are led by Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel — the latter of whom is the 19th-best 3-point shooter in the country, at 46.7%.

SU’s run in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament ended when Reece Beekman’s buzzer-beater lifted Virginia over the Orange, but wins over NC State, North Carolina and Clemson before the UVA loss helped Syracuse sneak off the bubble and narrowly make the tournament’s field.

Here’s what The Daily Orange’s beat writers think will happen when Syracuse (16-9, 9-7 ACC) and San Diego State meet for the third time:

Andrew Crane (16-9)
Zoned in
Syracuse 71, San Diego State 67

SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher admitted in his press conference after Selection Sunday that Syracuse posed a difficult challenge because the Aztecs haven’t played a 2-3 zone this season. Air Force was the only team to play any zone against them — everything else, through nonconference play and the MWC, was man defense. The Orange’s defensive improvements throughout the season make them an intriguing upset pick in the first round, as long as they contain San Diego State’s shooters and Buddy Boeheim continues his run on offense. 

Look for the zone to shake up SDSU’s rhythm and provide just enough of an advantage after some late Syracuse baskets help it pull away for its first tournament win since 2018. The 2-3 zone has carried the Orange before in March, and it’ll do just that again on Friday.

Anthony Dabbundo (19-6)
Zoned out
San Diego State 75, Syracuse 73

I have gone back and forth on my pick for this game multiple times. But after examining both teams, this game is sure to come down to who makes more 3s. Both teams like to shoot 3s, neither team gets to the rim that much, and both defenses are set up to force opponents to take jumpers. The Orange’s offense has really improved in recent weeks and deserves credit for that. But SDSU can frustrate the Orange and contest every jump shot. On the other end, SDSU hasn’t seen a zone, but the Aztecs are experienced and well-coached. 

Schakel has a big game and makes enough 3s to keep SDSU in this early before the Aztecs win the game in the final minutes. The Aztecs offense will be better at generating quality looks than the Orange’s, especially with the game on the line in the final two minutes. And in a tight game, I have more faith in SDSU’s defense than the Orange’s, which has been inconsistent at best. In a true toss-up game, experience and Mitchell wins it for SDSU. 

Danny Emerman (16-9)
It ends tonight
San Diego State 75, Syracuse 70

What scares me if I’m Syracuse is SDSU’s combination of physical frontcourt and lethal outside shooters. That’s a rare mix, one that SU has seldom seen in 2021. Syracuse absolutely could shock the Aztecs with a zone they haven’t seen all year. Buddy could continue his heroic scoring stretch. Kadary Richmond could punish the smaller Terrell Gomez in switches. But it all comes back to that combination of interior presence and perimeter marksmen. That can be fatal for an SU defense that’s struggled all year. SDSU is a very stout No. 6 seed, and it’s ranked 20th in KenPom for a reason. The Orange’s stay in Indiana will be cut short.

Published on March 17, 2021 at 11:14 pm